It’s a natural question to ask after the 7.0-magnitude earthquake struck Haiti Jan. 12: Could that same kind of devastation happen in Seattle?

Seattle doesn’t have a lot in common with the country where more than 250,000 people are estimated dead, with that number still on the rise.

But the earthquake that has devastated Haiti does serve as a reminder that the “big one” could strike Seattle at any moment.

The last time that happened was more than 300 years ago. A magnitude-9.0 earthquake was generated as the Juan de Fuca plate subducted beneath the North American plate, triggering a tsunami that belted the coast of Japan.

“One can happen anytime, but in your lifetime, you probably have a 25-percent chance of one of those happening,” said Paul Bodin, associate research professor in the Department of Earth and Space Sciences (ESS) and network manager of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network.

An earthquake of that size is believed to occur about once every 500 years in the Cascadia subduction zone. But, Bodin added, that number is just an average, and “earthquakes aren’t strictly repeatable.”

The 2001 Nisqually earthquake, despite having a magnitude of 6.8, was centered very deep, at 52 kilometers. Although it did cause damage to unreinforced masonry buildings like some found in Pioneer Square, earthquakes are more devastating when they’re shallow. The Haiti earthquake was just 13 kilometers deep.

A discovery within the past decade may be cause for bigger worry – the Seattle Fault.

Not only is it shallow, but it runs directly underneath Seattle and the Puget Sound. Geologists believe its last rupture was around 1,000 years ago.

“The closest analog hazard that we have to Haiti is the Seattle Fault earthquake,” Bodin said.

So if disaster does strike, what impact could it have on the UW?

“Certainly, our proximity to the fault is a concern, but I think the greater concern for the UW is the fact that it is built on soil that amplifies seismic energy,” ESS graduate student Alicia Hotovec said via e-mail.

In fact, a U.S. Geological Survey map shows that, along with the downtown area, the UW will experience the greatest ground-shaking of any area in the city during an earthquake.

In 1991, the UW Earthquake Readiness Advisory Committee targeted 14 buildings for renovation that were “considered to be liable to major seismic damage and to have a high life-safety hazard potential.” Of those 14 buildings, at least 10 have completed or have plans for renovation or retrofitting.

“The biggest danger to people at UW would be from things falling off of shelves, things inside buildings falling over, and things like decorative masonry falling off the exteriors of buildings,” ESS graduate student Amanda Klaus wrote in an e-mail.

In relation to downtown Seattle, she added: “Buildings close to the water downtown are in a more dangerous situation, because there is a lot of building on landfill there, which can amplify shaking. If the viaduct is still up at the next big earthquake, it has the potential to be the biggest killer in Seattle.”

However, if the Seattle Fault were to rumble, Haiti is a poor comparison of what could happen here.

“In Haiti, it was a direct hit of a fairly big earthquake on a population that just wasn’t prepared,” Bodin said. “Here, there’s been a lot more planning and better design.”

Nevertheless, a report in The Seattle Times has suggested that damage from a Seattle Fault earthquake could cost tens of billions of dollars. Estimates have ranged from hundreds to even thousands of casualties.

“What we’re more concerned about here is how you recover from an earthquake like that,” Bodin said. “Damage in the metropolitan area from the Seattle Fault earthquake won’t be the kind of uniform devastation that we saw in Haiti and see there now. There will be more pockets of isolated damage. It’ll be important to identify those quickly and deal with them.

Bodin compared this possible scenario to Haiti’s crisis.

“In Haiti,” he said, “they’ll be cleaning up for years.”

Reach contributing writer Bryden McGrath at development@dailyuw.com.