By
Nikolaj Lasbo
August 13, 2008
As nations’ athletes converge at the Olympic Games in Beijing, a war rages in the Caucasus region that has all the markings of the Cold War revamped.
Since the fall of communism in the Eastern Bloc in 1991, former Soviet satellite nations like Georgia have vied for autonomy and independence from the Russian powerhouse.
The war — as Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin calls it — that erupted Aug. 8 between Georgia and Russia denotes an escalation of East-West tensions as both Russia and the United States vie for influence in the former Soviet state.
This is tantamount to the beginning of the next Cold War.
Luckily, Russia’s hostilities, which have left 1,500 Georgian civilians dead, have not gone unnoticed.
“Georgia is a sovereign nation, and its territorial integrity must be respected,” President Bush said while in attendance at the Olympic Games.
While it is unlikely that Bush will heed the call of Georgian officials to intervene militarily, Western powers will probably exert diplomatic pressure on Russia to end the war.
Georgia has a strong affinity with the West, and that is precisely at center of this conflict. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is very pro-Western and has expressed interest in joining NATO.
NATO would be right on Russia’s border if Georgia was to join the treaty, said Keith Suter, a consultant at Wesley Mission in Australia.
Still stuck in a Soviet paradigm, the Kremlin views this relationship with the West as injurious to its ability to exercise control over the region. As Suter said, the West’s stance to the Russian offensive is explained by a desire to “prevent Georgia from falling back into the hands of the Russian Empire.”
The Caucasus region where Georgia is located has been called “the next Middle East,” referring to its large oil reserves. The area is an extremely significant energy producer that pipes oil and natural gas from the Caspian Sea.
A U.S.-backed pipeline runs through Georgia, allowing the West to reduce its reliance on Middle Eastern oil and bypass Russia. Oil is increasingly a strategic resource vis-à-vis rising global prices, and it is imaginable that both Russia and the West would like to ensure access to Caucasus oil. This possibly explains the Russian offensive and the West’s response.
The writing has been on the walls for some time concerning escalating tensions between Russia and the West.
The United States has been planning to build a strategic missile defense system in Eastern Europe — under the pretense of intercepting Iranian missiles — and Russia has vigorously objected.
An anti-missile system in Eastern Europe would change the current balancing act of deterrence, and Russia would find itself the underdog in the event of nuclear war.
Does any of what I have just spelled out ring a bell?
The current situation in Georgia is similar to the way Russia handled its dissenting satellites during the Cold War. It harkens back to the Prague Spring in 1968, when Czechoslovakians failed to liberate themselves from Soviet oppression and were met with military invasion.
Nuclear war is still on the minds of Russia and the West, and oil could very well become the catalyst in launching both sides into war.
Even the famed Domino Theory has been rehashed, with some pundits speculating that if Georgia falls, Ukraine will as well.
Whichever way you look at Russia’s recent invasion of Georgia, it smells like the next Cold War.
2 Comments
#1 Charles A.
on August 13, 2008 at 9:57 a.m.(UW Campus)
To understand the rise of nationalistic militarism in Russia in the last ten years, look to the failed neoliberal shock therapy (privatization, deregulation, budget cuts) implemented by Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s. The U.S.-backed policy (see: Milton Friedman, Jeffrey Sachs) led to the selling off of Russia's wealth to private corporations, the loss of tens of millions of jobs, and the further impoverishment of the Russian people.
http://www.iht.com/articles/1992/01/2...
Point aside, going to war is the last solution we should consider. Everybody loses except the war profiteers.
#2 Jonathan W.
on August 13, 2008 at 11:59 a.m.(Charlotte, NC)
This is just the start of World War III
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