BY EMILY LEE

THE DAILY

Four percent. That number, representing the proportion of Hispanic students currently enrolled at the UW, will likely pack on some more digits in the coming years.

Within the span of two decades, the number of college applicants in Washington is expected to drop, rise and diversify due to changing demographics in the population.

“We’ve been in a boom situation until now,” said Philip Ballinger, UW director of admissions. “That’s going to reverse. [College-bound high school students are] going to be much more diverse and there’s going to be a much higher proportion of low-income students.”

He projected the number of Washington high school students going to college will decrease by about 7.5 percent between now and 2014. While these years will bring a 43 percent increase in Hispanic college-going students, it will not offset the 16 percent decrease in white students going to college. The total number of students going to college is expected to rebound to its current level by 2021.

“When you look at those populations that are growing, namely Latino, they also have the lowest college-going rates,” said Sheila Lange, UW vice president for minority affairs.

Currently, about 45 percent of Hispanic high school graduates go onto college in Washington, compared to 54 percent of whites.

In the coming years, numbers of white high school graduates will decrease while the number of minority high school graduates will increase due to birth rate and immigration patterns.

“With no intervention, we’ll have a larger number [of Latinos] coming out [of high school] and still that small number going to college,” Lange said. “When you partner that with the decreases in the white population, we’re going to have some concerns about who’s going to college in the future.”

The projected trends in Washington are a part of national trends. “Knocking at the College Door,” a report released March 2008 by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, estimated a more than 50 percent increases in Hispanic high school graduates in the United States, which would impact universities all around the country.

The change in demographic implicates a need for state policymakers and school leaders to adjust and reach out to traditionally underrepresented populations, which will bring in more low-income, first-generation and bilingual college-bound students.

“We have a gap,” Lange said. “The fastest growing group is also the lowest college-going group. We have to intervene, but we have to intervene at the K-12 level.”

Lange said the UW Office of Minority Affair’s outreach teams are merging with UW Admissions to ensure the climate is supportive and welcoming of students from all backgrounds. One thing they’re doing is making recruitment material in both Spanish and English and their outreach will encompass participation of K-12 schools, supporting communities, parents, teachers and students in an effort to accommodate for the changing demographics.

Especially important during times of population shifts are programs such as the UW Dream Project, where UW students partner with low-income high school students in an effort to achieve college enrollment.

The impact of a decrease in college-bound students also has implications for the future workforce.

“If current population trends continue and states do not improve the education of all racial/ethnic groups, the skills of the workforce and incomes of U.S. residents are projected to decline over the next two decades,” according to a 2005 report from the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education.

At the UW, the weight of the change will be evident, but more focus may be placed on the shift in demographics than the decreasing numbers.

“We’re going to notice [the change] but we have some strengths,” Lange said. “We are, relatively speaking, a pretty diverse university. We attract a broad section of high school graduates.”

Reach reporter Emily Lee at news@dailyuw.com.