Well, the new year has finally arrived. I know for many of you on this campus it didn’t come soon enough. You know who you are. You probably have a sticker on your car that reads, “01-20-09 = Bush’s last day.”

To put it another way, 2008 is the year where we will decide on a new president to lead America forward.

But those of you that have been following the primary results know that very little has been decided thus far. Both parties seem to be torn between impassioned human connection and experience — or at least perceived experience.

After reading one analysis and prediction after another, I can only say what essentially everyone else is saying: this race is a toss up on both sides of the aisle.

It’s astonishing how different is not only each candidate but each campaign strategy as well. Romney and Edwards focused heavily on Iowa,;and Mitt and Hillary have emphasized their experience the most.

Rudy Giuliani and McCain have both tried to be the “crossover candidate” by appealing to independents and moderates, while the most fascinating candidates of all are Huckabee and Obama.

Both have odd names and both have arguably the least experience, yet both are personally connecting with voters through emotionally charged passion.

There is no question that an emotional connection with those one lead is an important component of being a good president. However, it concerns me that so many people are all too willing to support sincere-sounding orators over time-tested experience.

This seems especially true with Obama. He is three years removed from the Illinois Senate, and his speeches are a hollow potpourri of hope, change and unity rhetoric that is utterly lacking in substance.

This isn’t to say that Obama has failed to become a formidable candidate. But with how important this election is to the Democrats, it is hard to believe that this is the best they can come up with.

For those of us on the GOP side, we have some hurdles of our own. Namely, can Republicans win despite an outgoing president whose approval rating is hovering around freezing?

I don’t buy into the notion that the United States has made a huge swing to the left, and I believe Republicans have plenty of reason to be optimistic about this election; however, it would be foolish to ignore the actuality of the situation we face.

The bottom line is that the negative perception that Republicans hold nationwide is real. A Rasmussen poll shows that the percentage of Americans who call themselves Republicans has dropped about five points since the 2004 election.

The Pew Research Council broadened this question by asking voters not only with which party they identify, but also toward which they lean, and Democrats led by 15 points.

Additional polling shows independents lining up with Democrats on the leading issues, and Gallup has just released a poll that shows that 70 percent of Americans believe our nation is heading in the wrong direction.

This disparity is, of course, significant when you consider that Republicans have controlled the White House for seven years and the Congress for a good portion of those years. What is interesting is that the same Gallup poll also shows that 84 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with how their lives are going personally.

What explains this phenomenon? I generally shy away from the conservative tendency to blame the media for our ailments, but this time it’s hard to deny the role that it has played in shaping public opinion.

How many of you even realize that we just finished the third quarter of 2007 with 4.9 percent GDP growth — the largest growth seen since 2003? I can understand if you haven’t, considering the media hullabaloo over an impending recession.

I searched The New York Times for articles on recession and came up with tons of pages on the subject — despite Alan Greenspan’s 50 percent prediction that we will ride it out just fine — yet I could not find one article on the encouraging GDP figure.

Also, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Commerce, income has risen smartly over the course of 2007, yet the media insistently paints an overly negative economic picture. Americans are being told every day that their neighbors’ lives are miserable despite their own being quite good.

I acknowledge that there are very real issues facing many Americans that the candidates can’t ignore — rising insurance and oil costs, the sub-prime mortgage fiasco and concerns over the dollar and Iraq. But it is presumptuous to think that these domestic pressures automatically translate into a mandate to raise taxes, increase the welfare state, establish a universal, single-payer healthcare system and let Al-Qaeda take over Iraq.

For example, evidence is quite mixed on whether Americans really want universal healthcare or an irresponsible withdrawal from Iraq.

A report in Health Affairs found that 69 percent of respondents viewed the U.S. system as “fair” or “poor,” yet an astonishing 80 percent who had also recently received care rated it as “excellent” or “good.”

Likewise, the Democrats’ calls for withdrawal from Iraq — while essentially maintaining the same plan as Bush — proves that despite their rhetoric, they understand the true cost of such a move.

Democrats have the overall national mood in their favor, but it remains to be seen whether they can prove they are as prepared for the presidency as they are for motivational speaking.

Republicans are fighting an uphill perception battle, but at least they have the experienced adults on their roster. A 24-year senator and war hero verses a two-year senator and two-year presidential candidate, anyone?

[Reach columnist Thomas Walker at opinion@thedaily.washington.edu.]