The widespread belief that the earth will eventually run out of oil is a misconception, according to Earth and Space Sciences professor Eric Cheney.

“At a given price, there will always be some available,” Cheney said. “You may pay $20 to $100 a gallon, but there will always be some to buy.”

Cheney’s argument contradicts the common belief among environmentalists that there is a fixed amount of oil available. This idea is based on the Hubbert Peak Theory, which stated that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970 and decline thereafter.

“I think the theory is wrong; I don’t think we’re going to have a peak,” Cheney said. “Instead of peak, we’re going to have plateau oil. What will peak is the per capita production of oil. Even if world oil remains essentially steady, world population is going to continue to increase.”

Cheney acknowledged that times have changed since this theory was released.

“I try to point out that the economics and technologies are much different than in Hubbert’s day,” he said.

Cheney uses the recent quantum leap in Canadian oil reserves, due to the ability and profitability of mining the Athabasca tar sands of Alberta for oil, as an example of how new technologies have made mining once unthought — of areas as profitable ventures for oil companies.

In 2005, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission altered its definition of oil to include the synthetic oil extracted from the Athabasca tar sands.

“Because of economics, we’ll never get to the bottom barrel,” Cheney said. “The bottom of the barrel is an economic definition. If you change that definition, then the barrel gets bigger.”

Members of Seattle Peak Oil Awareness (SPOA), a diverse group of engineers, computer experts and other Seattleites developing strategies for reducing dependence on hydrocarbons, agree the world will never totally run out of oil. Yet the group maintains that world oil production will peak by 2010, if it hasn’t already.

“Insofar as U.S. oil production was around 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970 and is now about 4.5 million barrels per day, we find [peak oil] as difficult to think of as a theory in any way more meaningful than weightlessness in space is a theory,” said SPOA member Robert Nelson.

Unlike Cheney, SPOA believes the window of opportunity to make a difference has closed.

“[The window] closed somewhere between 1980 and 1995,” Nelson said. “Instead of becoming more energy-efficient and curbing population growth, we’ve expanded per capita energy use, encouraged industrialization in the Third World and continued to add people everywhere.”

Peak oil groups such as SPOA believe that conservation can only help slow the inevitable, and Americans must begin preparing for an era less dependant on oil.

“Many Americans feel like we deserve the things we have, and this attitude isn’t going to help us if our globalized system breaks,” Nelson said.

Cheney doesn’t see the opportunity to make necessary changes as one that has completely evaporated, but he does believe lifestyle changes and conservation need to happen soon in order to make a difference.

“I think we should start conserving now,” Cheney said. “Conservation is our greatest resource. We waste so much energy that we could save a hell of a lot.”

Reach reporter Shaun Moore at news@thedaily.washington.edu.