Tuition rates may be on the rise for UW students in coming years — that is, if a recent state budget proposal is not approved in the upcoming state Legislative session.

The proposal, unveiled by Gov. Christine Gregoire on Dec. 19, would boost statewide funding for higher education by $700 million. Of this, $181 million will go to the UW over the next two years.

Included in the proposal was a 7-percent cap on tuition increases at public four-year universities and complete freezing of tuition at community and technical colleges.

UW enrollment is expected to increase by 815 students annually, mostly in math and science fields, as a result of the proposal.

"The budget must pass; there is no 'in the event it doesn't'," said ASUW student lobbyist Bryce McKibben. "The question will be whether we get enough money to bring [the UW] up to par funding with our peers, or [funding] remains low, and they push to make up the difference on students backs."

As the proposal stands, the $181 million would increase the UW's budget by 7.3 percent, pushing the two-year operating budget close to $2 billion.

Ana Mari Cauce, the UW's executive vice provost, said increased funding was needed to compete in an increasingly competitive, globalized world and to guarantee that all Washingtonians can afford a decent education.

The UW lags behind peer schools in per-student funding by an average of $4,000. However, the per-student funding gap is $6,000 in comparison with the UW's closest peer school, UCLA.

"There is a long legislative road ahead for this budget to become a reality," said UW President Mark Emmert. "We will be working hard in the coming months to make sure the Legislature understands our needs and the very positive ways in which the governor's budget addresses them."

While the news of a proposed tuition cap may be welcomed by UW students, the caps will only apply to the next two-year period, after which larger increases in tuition could occur.

"I would predict with 99 percent certainty that any tuition increases in excess of seven percent are dead in the water — at least for the next two years — but we can expect the UW to go to the max; tuition will increase by seven percent over this year," McKibben said.

UW tuition has nearly doubled during the past decade, with the largest-annual increase of 16.4 percent during the 2003-2004 school year, a fact that Gregoire acknowledged in a press release.

"Tuition at four-year colleges has increased by double digits in recent years," Gregoire said. "The 7-percent cap will allow students to at least have a predictable number to budget with."

In 2005, Emmert said he was in favor of increasing annual tuition to $8,000 dollars in an attempt to increase levels of financial aid for lower-income students.

A plan approved by the UW Board of Regents earlier this year could make this kind of hike a reality. The plan seeks UW administrative control of undergraduate tuition — currently a responsibility of the Legislature — in the event the Legislature does not approve more funding.

"Our preference, the President's preference, the provost's preference, everyone's preference, would be that the state appropriated funds to close this gap," Cauce said. "Realistically speaking that's not going to happen, and it's going to require appropriated funds and tuition increases."

Affordable Tuition Now! chairman Joel Murray praised Gregoire's budget proposal, calling the 7-percent cap a reasonable compromise. Murray said the UW administrators have been pushing for the ability to control in-state undergraduate tuition for a while, though Murray was quick to point out that for now, at least, the state Legislature has oversight.

Cauce said the UW controls both out-of-state and graduate tuition rates, maintaining that it made sense for the UW to set in-state undergraduate tuition rates as well. Cauce acknowledged student skepticism regarding UW administrative control over tuition, based on tuition-rate increases in the past.

"The Regents and the UW administration feel that we can be trusted with this responsibility," Cauce said. "Sure, there have been increases in out-of-state and grad school tuition, but they haven't been outrageous."

Murray was skeptical, speculating that tuition could increase by as much as 16 percent if the UW administrators gain direct control.

Since UW administrators assumed control of out-of-state undergraduate tuition, annual increase percentages have mostly mirrored those of in-state tuition increases.

While these tuition increases have been proportional to in-state increases, Murray made note of the fact that out-of-state tuition is nearly four times greater in cost than in-state.

Graduate-school rates have seen the largest increase since UW administrators assumed control of setting tuition. In the past five years, all Tier 3 graduate students have experienced double-digit hikes.

The UW Law School saw the largest tuition increase — an increase of 48 percent — during the 2002-2003 school year. Additionally, UW Business School graduate students saw annual tuition increases ranging between 15 percent and 25 percent during the past five years.

"We're really happy with the governor's budget, even with the 7-percent cap on tuition increases," Cauce said. "If we get that budget, we won't want to raise tuition more than 7 percent."

Reach reporter Brian Slodysko at brianslodysko@u.washington.edu.