Russian politics is a messy affair. But signals of just how messy and dangerous Russia can be have risen in recent months. As The Economist recently published, “Is it time to use the f-word?”

The Litvinenko affair, Georgia (the country, not the US state), and Chechnya (or oil) are all looming signs of former KGB-officer and current president Vladimir Putin’s growing power.

The Litvinenko affair has a plotline from a Hollywood movie mystery. Alexander Litvinenko, who defected from Russia Federal Security Service, which is Russia’s main intelligence agency and the post-Soviet KGB, was living in London when he was poisoned with radioactive polonium.

British officers are watching the investigation in Russia, but they cannot participate in it. They recently identified the suspect on video camera, but no one yet knows for whom he was working. Conspiracy theories abound. Many blame the President, others angry members of the FSB.

Putin blames Litvinenko’s death, as well as the death of journalist Anna Politkovskaya, who wrote about the human rights violations in controversial Chechnya, on individuals who want to discredit him.

This is a suspicious statement. If he actually had nothing to do with the murders, he would be better off claiming he will do everything he can to find the murderers.

Odds are, the truth will never be complete, but the story is telling of Russian politics. The limited reach of British authorities in the investigation highlights Russian uneasiness, and of the many conspiracy theories, some seem conveniently fabricated. And polonium isn’t easily acquired, hinting at the involvement of very powerful forces.

The unfortunate truth is that Russian “democracy” serves as a better joke than a reality. There are few truly free newspapers, anyone who stands up against the government conveniently disappears, the courts and congress are weak, and Putin always gets his way despite constant complaints from the West. You can’t blame Russian citizens if they are losing faith in their government.

The closer one looks at Russian politics and relations, the worse it gets. Relations with Georgia, Russia’s southern neighbor, have always been tense due to constant Russian military presence over the years, and that diplomatic relationship also took a hard hit over the summer.

After the “rose revolution”, a democratic upheaval in 2003 that put Mikhail Saakashvili into power, Georgia has continued to upset Russia. Saakashvili called for the fractured country to be reunited and pushed it closer to the US and NATO.

Two regions in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, are regionally independent and under Russian influence. The call to reunite Georgia made the hair on the back of Putin’s neck rise. That call, combined with the desire to join NATO, caused a trade embargo against Georgia and put the two countries into a cold war this summer.

Fortunately, a real war was averted, but the tension continues. This conflict is also a sign that Russia is trying to control politics around its border, which it wouldn’t have dared to do a decade ago.

For countries bordering Russia and the West, this is a scary sign of growing Russian influence. This influence has also been growing in the oil market.

Europe receives one quarter of its oil from Russia and rises in prices have raised Russia’s confidence. Many smaller countries, including Georgia and Ukraine, have faced Putin’s oil embargo wrath.

Yukos, a private oil company, was torn apart by Putin in 2003 and replaced by Gazprom, the national company. And just recently, Shell, Mitsui and Mitsubishi, the companies that have almost finished developing Russia’s oil infrastructure, just sold their shareholding to Gazprom.

Why, when gas prices continue to rise? I doubt it was solely a business decision.

Putin’s political use of oil could allow Russia to re-assert its power, not only in the region, but also in the world. And when he steps down in 2008, could it get even worse?

Only time will tell Russia’s fate in world politics, but the signs are scary. Mysterious murders, political manipulation in the region, trade embargos, and Gazprom’s rise all signal growing power in Russia.

Reach columnist Brooke McKean at opinion@thedaily.washington.edu.